A model for forecasting wheat production

A model for forecasting production of wheat considering the effects of irrigation, fertilizer application, high yielding varieties, rainfall, labour and farm machinery is derived. Applicabilitty of this model is tested for Indian conditions and is found satisfactory. Strength and limitations of this model can be applied successfully to other national conditions also. This model has been applied to the prediction of wheat production using two growth relations.     

Musgrave’s “target saver” theory: Implications for macroeconomic stability and economic policy effectiveness”

Musgrave develops the concept of the “target saver,” in which the household saves in the present in order to finance a target level of consumption outlays in the future. The resulting household behavior is one in which a rise in the rate of interest in the present period reduces the amount of saving needed for future consumption, so that household saving is inversely rather than positively a function of the interest rate. The present study examines the potential implications of the target saver in the aggregate for macroeconomic stability and economic policy effectiveness.      

Foreign Investment and Industrialization in Malaysia: Exports,Employment and Spillovers*

Over the past two decades, there has been a decisive shift in trade and industry policy in developing countries (DCs) away from import substitution and towards export-orientation. As part of this policy shift, an increasing number of DCs have become more receptive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite its policy relevance, the literature on the role of FDI in export expansion, employment generation and spillovers in DCs is sparse. This paper attempts to fill this gap through a case study of the role of export-oriented FDI in Malaysia's rapid industrialization. The overall conclusion of the paper is that export-oriented FDI has brought significant returns to Malaysia principally because the general economic climate has been favourable for the internationalization of production for a considerable period of time.     

Dealing with the Proliferation of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements

Bilateral free trade agreements (BTAs) have been proliferating. The outcome of this proliferation of often overlapping BTAs and plurilateral free trade agreements (PTAs) is described as the spaghetti bowl effect or, in the Asian region, the noodle bowl effect. This is costly, and welfare reducing. How do we remedy the situation? In this paper, we consider the various options proposed in dealing with the spaghetti bowl, and assess their ability to do so. A general limitation of these proposals is their tendency to group all kinds of BTAs together, treating them as a homogeneous group. Thus, the proposals ignore underlying differences in motivation in forming BTAs. To overcome this, we develop a taxonomy for classifying BTAs by motivation before considering the effectiveness of the different remedies proposed. We find that each proposal has its pros and cons, and can cater for different types of BTAs. Thus, a combination of the various proposals may be warranted, even in the event of an expeditious and bona fide conclusion to the Doha Round.     

Macroeconomic management amid ethnic diversity: Fifty years of Malaysian experience

This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy has played in the Malaysian development experience. Given the multiracial nature of Malaysian society, macroeconomic policy has not only been about economic stabilization, but also about addressing income disparities along racial lines in order to preserve social harmony. The affirmative action program under the New Economic Policy (NEP) was an important signaling device, and served to demonstrate that all should share in future growth. These selective interventions were clearly distortionary, and promoted a culture of dependence on state hand-outs, as well as rent-seeking behavior. It was perhaps fortunate that FDI inflows and rapid export expansion were available to augment the domestic resource base. Although its resource cost was not a major drag on growth in the past, the slowdown in FDI inflows and exports post-crisis, combined with demographic change, implies that reforms may be necessary to ensure sustainability, going forward.     

Building customers' affective commitment towards retail banks: The role of CRM in each ‘moment of truth’

This paper argues that retail banks need to focus more strongly on components of their Customer Relationship Management (CRM) strategy that will generate customer affective commitment and lead to an increase in customer retention, share of wallet, and advocacy. It is suggested that affective commitment is generated during ‘moments of truth’ or episodes of interpersonal interaction between customers and bankers. As shown in social psychology, effective interpersonal interactions are a function of the assertiveness and affiliation demonstrated during the interaction. Applying this to retail banking, bankers should mine their databases to identify customers in terms of their levels of profitability and longevity, and should deliver levels of assertiveness and affiliation appropriate to each customer. Testable research propositions are developed regarding how affective commitment might evolve during a customer's tenure with a retail bank, when bankers should deliver assertiveness and/or affiliation to customers of differing longevity and profitability, and how these strategies to increase affective commitment will impact retention, share development, and advocacy. Overall, the call is to complement the emphasis on the use of high-tech CRM strategies that generate huge databases with a more high-touch strategy that will indicate to bankers how to interact with each individual customer.     

Making innovation happen in organizations: individual creativity mechanisms,organizational creativity mechanisms or both?

Marketing managers increasingly face a product innovation dilemma. Managers will have to sell more with fewer new products in an environment where new products are providing lower revenue yields. Therefore, understanding what drives successful innovation is of paramount importance. This paper examines the organizational innovation hypothesis that innovation is a function of individual efforts and organizational systems to facilitate creativity. Our model formulates creativity as a property of thought process that can be acquired and improved through instruction and practice. In this context, individual creativity mechanisms refer to activities undertaken by individual employees within an organization to enhance their capability for developing something, which is meaningful and novel within their work environment. Organizational creativity mechanisms refer to the extent to which the organization has instituted formal approaches and tools, and provided resources to encourage meaningfully novel behaviors within the organization. Using data collected from 634 organizations, we find support for this hypothesis. The results suggest that the presence of both individual and organizational creativity mechanisms led to the highest level of innovation performance. The results also suggest that high levels of organizational creativity mechanisms (even in the presence of low levels of individual creativity) led to significantly superior innovation performance than low levels of organizational and individual creativity mechanisms. The paper also presents managerial and academic implications. This study suggests that it is not enough for organizations to hire creative people and expect the innovation performance of the firm to be superior. Similarly, it is not enough for firms to emphasize management practices to enhance creativity and ignore individual mechanisms. Although it is true that doing either will improve innovation performance, doing both should lead to higher innovation levels. Our understanding of what and how creativity influences innovation performance can be greatly enhanced by additional research that integrates the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of creativity. Research that examines the role of team creativity efforts in enhancing innovation performance is also vital to an overall improved understanding of creativity, learning, and innovation within organizations.     

Causal Effect of Credit Guarantees for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Evidence from Italy

We evaluate the effectiveness of a partial credit guarantee program, implemented in a large Italian region, that aimed to improve the access to credit of small and medium enterprises. Using unique microdata from a broad set of firms, we show that the policy increased the long-term loans for beneficiary firms, while the total volume of bank loans was unaffected. Furthermore, targeted firms benefited from a substantial decrease in interest rates. However, there is some evidence that firms are more likely to default as a consequence of the treatment. Conversely, the results do not point to any significant effect on investments.     

Cambodia: Rapid Growth with Weak Institutions

This paper examines Cambodia's socioeconomic development since the early 1990s peace settlement. The country's economic growth has arguably been the fastest among post‐conflict societies, driven by the credible restoration of peace and security, large public and private capital inflows, economic openness, reasonably prudent macroeconomic management, and a dynamic, integrating neighborhood. A legacy of history and small size is that the government has limited policy space, although this has not necessarily retarded economic development. We also highlight some key challenges, including rising inequality, uneven spatial development, weak institutions, and high levels of corruption. Looking forward, we highlight the importance of strengthening supply side capabilities, broadening the benefits of growth, and developing stronger institutions and property rights.